All published signals

USDA NASS reported Iowa soybeans harvest at 31% for the week ending 2026-10-11, versus the 2021-2025 same-week average of 59% (28 percentage points below). The previous week was 5%. Crop year: 2026.

Progress measures timing, not harvested quantity, yield, quality or net available supply. Later fieldwork, stocks and other producing regions can offset this timing difference. No weather-caused production loss is established. Marketing year is not assigned to this fieldwork statistic.

Next check: Next USDA NASS Crop Progress release, expected October 19, 2026; confirm actual issue and replace this comparison with its new reference week.

USDA's 2026-10-09 WASDE projected U.S. soybean-oil ending stocks for marketing year 2026/27 at 1,797 million pounds.

The number is a forecast, not a physical stock count; biofuel demand, trade, crush, other oils, and later revisions can change its implications.

Next check: Next monthly USDA WASDE release.

USDA's 2026-10-09 WASDE projected U.S. soybean-meal production for marketing year 2026/27 at 65,800 thousand short tons.

WASDE is a forecast and this production projection is not realized crush, feed demand, exports, or a soybean-meal price direction.

Next check: Next monthly USDA WASDE release.

wasde us soybeans production: 4562.0 million bushels; US, United States; 2026-10-09.

Larger published U.S. bean supply than the matched comparison increases the supply side of the bean balance.

Price confidence: medium

Counter-case: Exports, crush, carry-in, South American output and later forecast revisions can offset the supply increase.

Exports, crush, carry-in, South American output and later forecast revisions can offset the supply increase.

Next check: Next publisher release, a revision to this vintage, or an offsetting same-leg balance/trade observation.

wasde us soybeans exports: 1695.0 million bushels; US, United States; 2026-10-09.

Higher projected U.S. bean exports increase the published use side versus the prior WASDE forecast.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: The increase is small and production, stocks, competing origins and later revisions may dominate.

The increase is small and production, stocks, competing origins and later revisions may dominate.

Next check: Next publisher release, a revision to this vintage, or an offsetting same-leg balance/trade observation.

wasde us soybeans ending stocks: 315.0 million bushels; US, United States; 2026-10-09.

Higher projected U.S. bean ending stocks loosen the published bean balance versus the prior WASDE forecast.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: The revision is small and can be offset by export, crush, South American supply and subsequent estimates.

The revision is small and can be offset by export, crush, South American supply and subsequent estimates.

Next check: Next publisher release, a revision to this vintage, or an offsetting same-leg balance/trade observation.

wasde us soybeans crushings: 2780.0 million bushels; US, United States; 2026-10-09.

No single-metric price conclusion is justified from this verified fact alone.

Price confidence: insufficient

Counter-case: A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

Next check: Next publisher release, a revision to this vintage, or an offsetting same-leg balance/trade observation.

wasde us soybean oil production: 32945.0 million pounds; US, United States; 2026-10-09.

No single-metric price conclusion is justified from this verified fact alone.

Price confidence: insufficient

Counter-case: A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

Next check: Next publisher release, a revision to this vintage, or an offsetting same-leg balance/trade observation.

wasde us soybean oil exports: 400.0 million pounds; US, United States; 2026-10-09.

No single-metric price conclusion is justified from this verified fact alone.

Price confidence: insufficient

Counter-case: A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

Next check: Next publisher release, a revision to this vintage, or an offsetting same-leg balance/trade observation.

wasde us soybean oil ending stocks: 1797.0 million pounds; US, United States; 2026-10-09.

Lower projected U.S. soybean-oil ending stocks tighten the published oil balance versus the prior WASDE forecast.

Price confidence: medium

Counter-case: Biofuel use, crush, palm/sunflower/rapeseed oil substitution, imports and the next WASDE revision can reverse the implication.

Biofuel use, crush, palm/sunflower/rapeseed oil substitution, imports and the next WASDE revision can reverse the implication.

Next check: Next publisher release, a revision to this vintage, or an offsetting same-leg balance/trade observation.

wasde us soybean oil domestic disappearance: 33105.0 million pounds; US, United States; 2026-10-09.

No single-metric price conclusion is justified from this verified fact alone.

Price confidence: insufficient

Counter-case: A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

Next check: Next publisher release, a revision to this vintage, or an offsetting same-leg balance/trade observation.

wasde us soybean oil biofuel: 17800.0 million pounds; US, United States; 2026-10-09.

No single-metric price conclusion is justified from this verified fact alone.

Price confidence: insufficient

Counter-case: A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

Next check: Next publisher release, a revision to this vintage, or an offsetting same-leg balance/trade observation.

wasde us soybean meal production: 65800.0 thousand short tons; US, United States; 2026-10-09.

No single-metric price conclusion is justified from this verified fact alone.

Price confidence: insufficient

Counter-case: A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

Next check: Next publisher release, a revision to this vintage, or an offsetting same-leg balance/trade observation.

wasde us soybean meal exports: 22700.0 thousand short tons; US, United States; 2026-10-09.

No single-metric price conclusion is justified from this verified fact alone.

Price confidence: insufficient

Counter-case: A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

Next check: Next publisher release, a revision to this vintage, or an offsetting same-leg balance/trade observation.

wasde us soybean meal ending stocks: 450.0 thousand short tons; US, United States; 2026-10-09.

No single-metric price conclusion is justified from this verified fact alone.

Price confidence: insufficient

Counter-case: A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

Next check: Next publisher release, a revision to this vintage, or an offsetting same-leg balance/trade observation.

wasde us soybean meal domestic disappearance: 44100.0 thousand short tons; US, United States; 2026-10-09.

No single-metric price conclusion is justified from this verified fact alone.

Price confidence: insufficient

Counter-case: A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

Next check: Next publisher release, a revision to this vintage, or an offsetting same-leg balance/trade observation.

For the week ending 2026-10-04, USDA NASS reported soybean harvest progress of 25 percent in selected soybean states.

It is an aggregate progress percentage, not harvested area, realized production, farmer sales, export availability, or a price conclusion.

Next check: Next USDA NASS Crop Progress release.

For the week ending 2026-10-04, USDA NASS reported 57 percent of soybeans in selected soybean states as good or excellent.

It is neither final yield nor production loss, does not supply a matching area geometry in the retained record, and does not represent all global soybean supply.

Next check: Next USDA NASS Crop Progress release.

soybeans harvested percent: 25.0 percent; US, selected soybean states; 2026-10-04.

No single-metric price conclusion is justified from this verified fact alone.

Price confidence: insufficient

Counter-case: A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

Next check: Next publisher release, a revision to this vintage, or an offsetting same-leg balance/trade observation.

soybeans dropping leaves percent: 85.0 percent; US, selected soybean states; 2026-10-04.

No single-metric price conclusion is justified from this verified fact alone.

Price confidence: insufficient

Counter-case: A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

Next check: Next publisher release, a revision to this vintage, or an offsetting same-leg balance/trade observation.

soybean condition good excellent percent: 57.0 percent; US, selected soybean states; 2026-10-04.

No single-metric price conclusion is justified from this verified fact alone.

Price confidence: insufficient

Counter-case: A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

Next check: Next publisher release, a revision to this vintage, or an offsetting same-leg balance/trade observation.

global production forecast revision: lowered categorical_direction; World, global; 2026-10-02.

AMIS explicitly lowered the same 2026/27 global soybean production forecast month-on-month, a supply-side tightening fact.

Price confidence: medium

Counter-case: AMIS also notes an improved U.S. outlook; demand, stocks, currencies and later country revisions can offset the global supply revision.

AMIS also notes an improved U.S. outlook; demand, stocks, currencies and later country revisions can offset the global supply revision.

Next check: Next publisher release, a revision to this vintage, or an offsetting same-leg balance/trade observation.

USDA NASS's 2026-10-09 Crop Production report forecast 2026 U.S. soybean production at 4,561,605 thousand bushels, with the forecast observation dated 2026-10-01.

This is a forecast, not realized output; it can be revised and does not by itself describe global supply, availability, or price direction.

Next check: Next USDA NASS Crop Production release.

soybeans yield: 53.1 bushels per acre; US, United States; 2026-10-01.

No single-metric price conclusion is justified from this verified fact alone.

Price confidence: insufficient

Counter-case: A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

Next check: Next publisher release, a revision to this vintage, or an offsetting same-leg balance/trade observation.

soybeans production: 4561605.0 1000 bushels; US, United States; 2026-10-01.

Larger published U.S. bean supply than the matched comparison increases the supply side of the bean balance.

Price confidence: medium

Counter-case: Exports, crush, carry-in, South American output and later forecast revisions can offset the supply increase.

Exports, crush, carry-in, South American output and later forecast revisions can offset the supply increase.

Next check: Next publisher release, a revision to this vintage, or an offsetting same-leg balance/trade observation.

soybeans area harvested: 85881.0 1000 acres; US, United States; 2026-10-01.

No single-metric price conclusion is justified from this verified fact alone.

Price confidence: insufficient

Counter-case: A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

Next check: Next publisher release, a revision to this vintage, or an offsetting same-leg balance/trade observation.

soybean crop condition: sowing_beginning categorical_condition; Brazil, main growing areas; 2026-09-28.

No single-metric price conclusion is justified from this verified fact alone.

Price confidence: insufficient

Counter-case: A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

Next check: Next publisher release, a revision to this vintage, or an offsetting same-leg balance/trade observation.

soybeans crushed: 6289327.0 tons; US, United States; 2026-08-01.

No single-metric price conclusion is justified from this verified fact alone.

Price confidence: insufficient

Counter-case: A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

Next check: Next publisher release, a revision to this vintage, or an offsetting same-leg balance/trade observation.

soybean meal stocks: 452530.0 tons; US, United States; 2026-08-01.

No single-metric price conclusion is justified from this verified fact alone.

Price confidence: insufficient

Counter-case: A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

Next check: Next publisher release, a revision to this vintage, or an offsetting same-leg balance/trade observation.

soybean meal production: 4605470.0 tons; US, United States; 2026-08-01.

No single-metric price conclusion is justified from this verified fact alone.

Price confidence: insufficient

Counter-case: A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

Next check: Next publisher release, a revision to this vintage, or an offsetting same-leg balance/trade observation.

soybean meal animal feed production: 4543062.0 tons; US, United States; 2026-08-01.

No single-metric price conclusion is justified from this verified fact alone.

Price confidence: insufficient

Counter-case: A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

Next check: Next publisher release, a revision to this vintage, or an offsetting same-leg balance/trade observation.

refined soybean oil stocks: 417267.0 1000 pounds; US, United States; 2026-08-01.

No single-metric price conclusion is justified from this verified fact alone.

Price confidence: insufficient

Counter-case: A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

Next check: Next publisher release, a revision to this vintage, or an offsetting same-leg balance/trade observation.

refined soybean oil production: 2001002.0 1000 pounds; US, United States; 2026-08-01.

No single-metric price conclusion is justified from this verified fact alone.

Price confidence: insufficient

Counter-case: A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

Next check: Next publisher release, a revision to this vintage, or an offsetting same-leg balance/trade observation.

refined soybean oil inedible use: 753203.0 1000 pounds; US, United States; 2026-08-01.

No single-metric price conclusion is justified from this verified fact alone.

Price confidence: insufficient

Counter-case: A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

Next check: Next publisher release, a revision to this vintage, or an offsetting same-leg balance/trade observation.

refined soybean oil edible use: 1295867.0 1000 pounds; US, United States; 2026-08-01.

No single-metric price conclusion is justified from this verified fact alone.

Price confidence: insufficient

Counter-case: A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

Next check: Next publisher release, a revision to this vintage, or an offsetting same-leg balance/trade observation.

crude soybean oil stocks: 1279090.0 1000 pounds; US, United States; 2026-08-01.

No single-metric price conclusion is justified from this verified fact alone.

Price confidence: insufficient

Counter-case: A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

Next check: Next publisher release, a revision to this vintage, or an offsetting same-leg balance/trade observation.

crude soybean oil production: 2447917.0 1000 pounds; US, United States; 2026-08-01.

No single-metric price conclusion is justified from this verified fact alone.

Price confidence: insufficient

Counter-case: A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

Next check: Next publisher release, a revision to this vintage, or an offsetting same-leg balance/trade observation.

yield: 2927.96 kilograms per hectare; Argentina, national; 2024-12-31.

No single-metric price conclusion is justified from this verified fact alone.

Price confidence: insufficient

Counter-case: A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

Next check: Next publisher release, a revision to this vintage, or an offsetting same-leg balance/trade observation.

production: 51107839.0 tonnes; Argentina, national; 2024-12-31.

No single-metric price conclusion is justified from this verified fact alone.

Price confidence: insufficient

Counter-case: A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

Next check: Next publisher release, a revision to this vintage, or an offsetting same-leg balance/trade observation.

area planted: 17994965.0 hectares; Argentina, national; 2024-12-31.

No single-metric price conclusion is justified from this verified fact alone.

Price confidence: insufficient

Counter-case: A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

Next check: Next publisher release, a revision to this vintage, or an offsetting same-leg balance/trade observation.

area harvested: 17455116.0 hectares; Argentina, national; 2024-12-31.

No single-metric price conclusion is justified from this verified fact alone.

Price confidence: insufficient

Counter-case: A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

Next check: Next publisher release, a revision to this vintage, or an offsetting same-leg balance/trade observation.

soybeans received oilseed industry: 2909598.0 tonnes; Argentina, national; 2018-09-01.

No single-metric price conclusion is justified from this verified fact alone.

Price confidence: insufficient

Counter-case: A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

Next check: Next publisher release, a revision to this vintage, or an offsetting same-leg balance/trade observation.

soybean pellets production: 2155507.0 tonnes; Argentina, national; 2018-09-01.

No single-metric price conclusion is justified from this verified fact alone.

Price confidence: insufficient

Counter-case: A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

Next check: Next publisher release, a revision to this vintage, or an offsetting same-leg balance/trade observation.

soybean oil production: 578779.0 tonnes; Argentina, national; 2018-09-01.

No single-metric price conclusion is justified from this verified fact alone.

Price confidence: insufficient

Counter-case: A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

Next check: Next publisher release, a revision to this vintage, or an offsetting same-leg balance/trade observation.

soybean expellers production: 58888.0 tonnes; Argentina, national; 2018-09-01.

No single-metric price conclusion is justified from this verified fact alone.

Price confidence: insufficient

Counter-case: A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

A matching balance revision, demand/trade evidence and product-leg context are required.

Next check: Next publisher release, a revision to this vintage, or an offsetting same-leg balance/trade observation.