production forecast: 71900.0 thousand_60_kilogram_bags (2026/27; Brazil).

The USDA table value is a verified official forecast publication, not realized production, exports, demand or stocks; no same-definition revision is retained.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Actual harvest, origin mix, stocks, shipments and demand may differ from the forecast.

USDA figures are forecasts/estimates in thousand 60-kilogram bags, not realized production, demand, exports, or stocks.

Next check: Compare a subsequent USDA forecast vintage with the same metric/country/marketing year and physical evidence.

bean exports forecast: 45000.0 thousand_60_kilogram_bags (2026/27; Brazil).

The USDA table value is a verified official forecast publication, not realized production, exports, demand or stocks; no same-definition revision is retained.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Actual harvest, origin mix, stocks, shipments and demand may differ from the forecast.

USDA figures are forecasts/estimates in thousand 60-kilogram bags, not realized production, demand, exports, or stocks.

Next check: Compare a subsequent USDA forecast vintage with the same metric/country/marketing year and physical evidence.

production forecast: 32500.0 thousand_60_kilogram_bags (2026/27; Vietnam).

The USDA table value is a verified official forecast publication, not realized production, exports, demand or stocks; no same-definition revision is retained.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Actual harvest, origin mix, stocks, shipments and demand may differ from the forecast.

USDA figures are forecasts/estimates in thousand 60-kilogram bags, not realized production, demand, exports, or stocks.

Next check: Compare a subsequent USDA forecast vintage with the same metric/country/marketing year and physical evidence.

production forecast: 189667.0 thousand_60_kilogram_bags (2026/27; World).

The USDA table value is a verified official forecast publication, not realized production, exports, demand or stocks; no same-definition revision is retained.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Actual harvest, origin mix, stocks, shipments and demand may differ from the forecast.

USDA figures are forecasts/estimates in thousand 60-kilogram bags, not realized production, demand, exports, or stocks.

Next check: Compare a subsequent USDA forecast vintage with the same metric/country/marketing year and physical evidence.

production forecast: 13400.0 thousand_60_kilogram_bags (2026/27; Colombia).

The USDA table value is a verified official forecast publication, not realized production, exports, demand or stocks; no same-definition revision is retained.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Actual harvest, origin mix, stocks, shipments and demand may differ from the forecast.

USDA figures are forecasts/estimates in thousand 60-kilogram bags, not realized production, demand, exports, or stocks.

Next check: Compare a subsequent USDA forecast vintage with the same metric/country/marketing year and physical evidence.

ending stocks forecast: 489.0 thousand_60_kilogram_bags (2026/27; Vietnam).

The USDA table value is a verified official forecast publication, not realized production, exports, demand or stocks; no same-definition revision is retained.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Actual harvest, origin mix, stocks, shipments and demand may differ from the forecast.

USDA figures are forecasts/estimates in thousand 60-kilogram bags, not realized production, demand, exports, or stocks.

Next check: Compare a subsequent USDA forecast vintage with the same metric/country/marketing year and physical evidence.

ending stocks forecast: 26283.0 thousand_60_kilogram_bags (2026/27; World).

The USDA table value is a verified official forecast publication, not realized production, exports, demand or stocks; no same-definition revision is retained.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Actual harvest, origin mix, stocks, shipments and demand may differ from the forecast.

USDA figures are forecasts/estimates in thousand 60-kilogram bags, not realized production, demand, exports, or stocks.

Next check: Compare a subsequent USDA forecast vintage with the same metric/country/marketing year and physical evidence.

ending stocks forecast: 670.0 thousand_60_kilogram_bags (2026/27; Colombia).

The USDA table value is a verified official forecast publication, not realized production, exports, demand or stocks; no same-definition revision is retained.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Actual harvest, origin mix, stocks, shipments and demand may differ from the forecast.

USDA figures are forecasts/estimates in thousand 60-kilogram bags, not realized production, demand, exports, or stocks.

Next check: Compare a subsequent USDA forecast vintage with the same metric/country/marketing year and physical evidence.

ending stocks forecast: 4425.0 thousand_60_kilogram_bags (2026/27; Brazil).

The USDA table value is a verified official forecast publication, not realized production, exports, demand or stocks; no same-definition revision is retained.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Actual harvest, origin mix, stocks, shipments and demand may differ from the forecast.

USDA figures are forecasts/estimates in thousand 60-kilogram bags, not realized production, demand, exports, or stocks.

Next check: Compare a subsequent USDA forecast vintage with the same metric/country/marketing year and physical evidence.

domestic consumption forecast: 5000.0 thousand_60_kilogram_bags (2026/27; Vietnam).

The USDA table value is a verified official forecast publication, not realized production, exports, demand or stocks; no same-definition revision is retained.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Actual harvest, origin mix, stocks, shipments and demand may differ from the forecast.

USDA figures are forecasts/estimates in thousand 60-kilogram bags, not realized production, demand, exports, or stocks.

Next check: Compare a subsequent USDA forecast vintage with the same metric/country/marketing year and physical evidence.

domestic consumption forecast: 179736.0 thousand_60_kilogram_bags (2026/27; World).

The USDA table value is a verified official forecast publication, not realized production, exports, demand or stocks; no same-definition revision is retained.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Actual harvest, origin mix, stocks, shipments and demand may differ from the forecast.

USDA figures are forecasts/estimates in thousand 60-kilogram bags, not realized production, demand, exports, or stocks.

Next check: Compare a subsequent USDA forecast vintage with the same metric/country/marketing year and physical evidence.

domestic consumption forecast: 2200.0 thousand_60_kilogram_bags (2026/27; Colombia).

The USDA table value is a verified official forecast publication, not realized production, exports, demand or stocks; no same-definition revision is retained.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Actual harvest, origin mix, stocks, shipments and demand may differ from the forecast.

USDA figures are forecasts/estimates in thousand 60-kilogram bags, not realized production, demand, exports, or stocks.

Next check: Compare a subsequent USDA forecast vintage with the same metric/country/marketing year and physical evidence.

domestic consumption forecast: 22390.0 thousand_60_kilogram_bags (2026/27; Brazil).

The USDA table value is a verified official forecast publication, not realized production, exports, demand or stocks; no same-definition revision is retained.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Actual harvest, origin mix, stocks, shipments and demand may differ from the forecast.

USDA figures are forecasts/estimates in thousand 60-kilogram bags, not realized production, demand, exports, or stocks.

Next check: Compare a subsequent USDA forecast vintage with the same metric/country/marketing year and physical evidence.

bean exports forecast: 25400.0 thousand_60_kilogram_bags (2026/27; Vietnam).

The USDA table value is a verified official forecast publication, not realized production, exports, demand or stocks; no same-definition revision is retained.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Actual harvest, origin mix, stocks, shipments and demand may differ from the forecast.

USDA figures are forecasts/estimates in thousand 60-kilogram bags, not realized production, demand, exports, or stocks.

Next check: Compare a subsequent USDA forecast vintage with the same metric/country/marketing year and physical evidence.

bean exports forecast: 131410.0 thousand_60_kilogram_bags (2026/27; World).

The USDA table value is a verified official forecast publication, not realized production, exports, demand or stocks; no same-definition revision is retained.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Actual harvest, origin mix, stocks, shipments and demand may differ from the forecast.

USDA figures are forecasts/estimates in thousand 60-kilogram bags, not realized production, demand, exports, or stocks.

Next check: Compare a subsequent USDA forecast vintage with the same metric/country/marketing year and physical evidence.

bean exports forecast: 12200.0 thousand_60_kilogram_bags (2026/27; Colombia).

The USDA table value is a verified official forecast publication, not realized production, exports, demand or stocks; no same-definition revision is retained.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Actual harvest, origin mix, stocks, shipments and demand may differ from the forecast.

USDA figures are forecasts/estimates in thousand 60-kilogram bags, not realized production, demand, exports, or stocks.

Next check: Compare a subsequent USDA forecast vintage with the same metric/country/marketing year and physical evidence.

PRECTOTCORR: 22.69142857142857 mm/day (2026-10-12; Central Highlands regional sample, Vietnam).

Weather/model conditions alone do not establish a net commodity price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Irrigation, harvest timing and regional variation can offset a single-grid anomaly; Robusta is separate from Arabica.

Irrigation, harvest timing and regional variation can offset a single-grid anomaly; Robusta is separate from Arabica.

Next check: Next USDA FAS Vietnam Coffee report and official export release; verify harvest/drying observations.

GWETROOT: 0.9214285714285714 1 (2026-10-12; Central Highlands regional sample, Vietnam).

Weather/model conditions alone do not establish a net commodity price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Irrigation, harvest timing and regional variation can offset a single-grid anomaly; Robusta is separate from Arabica.

Irrigation, harvest timing and regional variation can offset a single-grid anomaly; Robusta is separate from Arabica.

Next check: Next USDA FAS Vietnam Coffee report and official export release; verify harvest/drying observations.

T2M MAX: 35.21142857142858 C (2026-10-12; Minas Gerais regional sample, Brazil).

Weather/model conditions alone do not establish a net commodity price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Irrigation, altitude, other producing districts and biennial bearing may offset the sampled conditions; no national weighting.

Irrigation, altitude, other producing districts and biennial bearing may offset the sampled conditions; no national weighting.

Next check: Next CONAB coffee survey: producing area, yield and fruit-set report; INMET station corroboration.

T2M: 26.788571428571426 C (2026-10-12; Minas Gerais regional sample, Brazil).

Weather/model conditions alone do not establish a net commodity price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Irrigation, altitude, other producing districts and biennial bearing may offset the sampled conditions; no national weighting.

Irrigation, altitude, other producing districts and biennial bearing may offset the sampled conditions; no national weighting.

Next check: Next CONAB coffee survey: producing area, yield and fruit-set report; INMET station corroboration.

PRECTOTCORR: 0.05714285714285714 mm/day (2026-10-12; Minas Gerais regional sample, Brazil).

Weather/model conditions alone do not establish a net commodity price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Irrigation, altitude, other producing districts and biennial bearing may offset the sampled conditions; no national weighting.

Irrigation, altitude, other producing districts and biennial bearing may offset the sampled conditions; no national weighting.

Next check: Next CONAB coffee survey: producing area, yield and fruit-set report; INMET station corroboration.

GWETROOT: 0.2771428571428572 1 (2026-10-12; Minas Gerais regional sample, Brazil).

Weather/model conditions alone do not establish a net commodity price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Irrigation, altitude, other producing districts and biennial bearing may offset the sampled conditions; no national weighting.

Irrigation, altitude, other producing districts and biennial bearing may offset the sampled conditions; no national weighting.

Next check: Next CONAB coffee survey: producing area, yield and fruit-set report; INMET station corroboration.

corrected precipitation 7day total: 113.19 mm (2026-10-09; Central Highlands representative coffee region, Vietnam).

A dated representative NASA POWER grid condition is a verified model observation, but it does not verify a crop outcome or physical balance.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Spatial variation, irrigation, crop condition, other origins and stocks can offset the grid reading.

A regional gridded temperature/precipitation observation is a condition signal only. It does not establish flowering damage, yield loss, or a Vietnam-wide outcome.

Next check: Obtain official regional crop condition/production evidence matched to stage and region.

temperature 2m 7day mean: 25.2143 C (2026-10-09; Minas Gerais representative coffee region, Brazil).

A dated representative NASA POWER grid condition is a verified model observation, but it does not verify a crop outcome or physical balance.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Spatial variation, irrigation, crop condition, other origins and stocks can offset the grid reading.

A regional gridded temperature/precipitation observation is a condition signal only. It does not establish flowering damage, yield loss, or a Brazil-wide outcome.

Next check: Obtain official regional crop condition/production evidence matched to stage and region.

temperature 2m 7day mean: 24.1514 C (2026-10-09; Central Highlands representative coffee region, Vietnam).

A dated representative NASA POWER grid condition is a verified model observation, but it does not verify a crop outcome or physical balance.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Spatial variation, irrigation, crop condition, other origins and stocks can offset the grid reading.

A regional gridded temperature/precipitation observation is a condition signal only. It does not establish flowering damage, yield loss, or a Vietnam-wide outcome.

Next check: Obtain official regional crop condition/production evidence matched to stage and region.

temperature 2m: 23.66 C (2026-10-09; Central Highlands representative coffee region, Vietnam).

A dated representative NASA POWER grid condition is a verified model observation, but it does not verify a crop outcome or physical balance.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Spatial variation, irrigation, crop condition, other origins and stocks can offset the grid reading.

A regional gridded temperature/precipitation observation is a condition signal only. It does not establish flowering damage, yield loss, or a Vietnam-wide outcome.

Next check: Obtain official regional crop condition/production evidence matched to stage and region.

corrected precipitation: 8.66 mm/day (2026-10-09; Central Highlands representative coffee region, Vietnam).

A dated representative NASA POWER grid condition is a verified model observation, but it does not verify a crop outcome or physical balance.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Spatial variation, irrigation, crop condition, other origins and stocks can offset the grid reading.

A regional gridded temperature/precipitation observation is a condition signal only. It does not establish flowering damage, yield loss, or a Vietnam-wide outcome.

Next check: Obtain official regional crop condition/production evidence matched to stage and region.

temperature 2m: 27.31 C (2026-10-09; Minas Gerais representative coffee region, Brazil).

A dated representative NASA POWER grid condition is a verified model observation, but it does not verify a crop outcome or physical balance.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Spatial variation, irrigation, crop condition, other origins and stocks can offset the grid reading.

A regional gridded temperature/precipitation observation is a condition signal only. It does not establish flowering damage, yield loss, or a Brazil-wide outcome.

Next check: Obtain official regional crop condition/production evidence matched to stage and region.

corrected precipitation 7day total: 20.76 mm (2026-10-09; Minas Gerais representative coffee region, Brazil).

A dated representative NASA POWER grid condition is a verified model observation, but it does not verify a crop outcome or physical balance.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Spatial variation, irrigation, crop condition, other origins and stocks can offset the grid reading.

A regional gridded temperature/precipitation observation is a condition signal only. It does not establish flowering damage, yield loss, or a Brazil-wide outcome.

Next check: Obtain official regional crop condition/production evidence matched to stage and region.

corrected precipitation: 0.36 mm/day (2026-10-09; Minas Gerais representative coffee region, Brazil).

A dated representative NASA POWER grid condition is a verified model observation, but it does not verify a crop outcome or physical balance.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Spatial variation, irrigation, crop condition, other origins and stocks can offset the grid reading.

A regional gridded temperature/precipitation observation is a condition signal only. It does not establish flowering damage, yield loss, or a Brazil-wide outcome.

Next check: Obtain official regional crop condition/production evidence matched to stage and region.

certified stocks: 0.27 million_60kg_bags (2026-09; Scope described in source).

Two adjacent public ICO CMR editions use the same metric, group, form, geography and 60-kg-bag unit; this verifies the observed monthly change, not its net price effect.

Price confidence: medium

Counter-case: Shipment timing, quality, delivery eligibility, demand, other origins and commercial stocks can offset the change.

Shipment timing, quality, delivery eligibility, demand, other origins and commercial stocks can offset the change.

Next check: Reassess on next same-definition ICO CMR observation or corroborating balance evidence.

certified stocks: 0.87 million_60kg_bags (2026-09; Scope described in source).

Two adjacent public ICO CMR editions use the same metric, group, form, geography and 60-kg-bag unit; this verifies the observed monthly change, not its net price effect.

Price confidence: medium

Counter-case: Shipment timing, quality, delivery eligibility, demand, other origins and commercial stocks can offset the change.

Shipment timing, quality, delivery eligibility, demand, other origins and commercial stocks can offset the change.

Next check: Reassess on next same-definition ICO CMR observation or corroborating balance evidence.

fob value: 1094112072.0 US_dollars (2026-08; Brazil).

The official customs FOB value is verified, but the retained response has no net weight or comparable physical flow.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Unit value, mix, revision, timing and other origins can explain FOB value.

HS 090111 Brazil export data are customs trade statistics, not port loadings, ICO exports, futures deliveries, or all coffee forms.

Next check: Source-reported net weight and a comparable prior customs month are required.

green bean exports: 4.36 million_60kg_bags (2026-08; world).

Two adjacent public ICO CMR editions use the same metric, group, form, geography and 60-kg-bag unit; this verifies the observed monthly change, not its net price effect.

Price confidence: medium

Counter-case: Shipment timing, quality, delivery eligibility, demand, other origins and commercial stocks can offset the change.

Shipment timing, quality, delivery eligibility, demand, other origins and commercial stocks can offset the change.

Next check: Reassess on next same-definition ICO CMR observation or corroborating balance evidence.

green bean exports: 10.94 million_60kg_bags (2026-08; world).

Two adjacent public ICO CMR editions use the same metric, group, form, geography and 60-kg-bag unit; this verifies the observed monthly change, not its net price effect.

Price confidence: medium

Counter-case: Shipment timing, quality, delivery eligibility, demand, other origins and commercial stocks can offset the change.

Shipment timing, quality, delivery eligibility, demand, other origins and commercial stocks can offset the change.

Next check: Reassess on next same-definition ICO CMR observation or corroborating balance evidence.

green bean exports: 6.58 million_60kg_bags (2026-08; world).

Two adjacent public ICO CMR editions use the same metric, group, form, geography and 60-kg-bag unit; this verifies the observed monthly change, not its net price effect.

Price confidence: medium

Counter-case: Shipment timing, quality, delivery eligibility, demand, other origins and commercial stocks can offset the change.

Shipment timing, quality, delivery eligibility, demand, other origins and commercial stocks can offset the change.

Next check: Reassess on next same-definition ICO CMR observation or corroborating balance evidence.

Arabica green exports +13.84%; Robusta green exports -12.45%; US Arabica certified stocks +12.50%; London Robusta certified stocks +4.82%

Arabica export and certified-stock increases are near-term availability signals, while lower Robusta exports are supportive; higher London Robusta certified stocks counterbalances that support.

Price confidence: medium

Counter-case: Certified stocks are not total inventories; exports are monthly flows and can be driven by timing, quality, demand and delivery economics.

Certified stocks are not total inventories; exports are monthly flows and can be driven by timing, quality, demand and delivery economics.

Next check: Reassess when next ICO CMR confirms/reverses group exports and certified-stock movements.