GWETROOT: 0.8785714285714287 1 (2026-10-12; Khon Kaen cane regional sample, Thailand).

The retained NASA POWER model/reanalysis value verifies a grid-cell weather condition, but one short window cannot establish crop damage, sugar output or a net price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Milling schedules, other districts and conversion efficiency can offset local conditions; no beet/cane substitution inferred.

Model grid context, not a farm observation or area-weighted crop condition.

Next check: A newer weather window plus an independent, geographically matching official crop, crush, recovery or balance observation.

PRECTOTCORR: 0.03428571428571429 mm/day (2026-10-12; Maharashtra cane regional sample, India).

The retained NASA POWER model/reanalysis value verifies a grid-cell weather condition, but one short window cannot establish crop damage, sugar output or a net price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Reservoirs, irrigation, planting type, state variation and government export/ethanol policy can offset weather.

Model grid context, not a farm observation or area-weighted crop condition.

Next check: A newer weather window plus an independent, geographically matching official crop, crush, recovery or balance observation.

GWETROOT: 0.5485714285714286 1 (2026-10-12; Maharashtra cane regional sample, India).

The retained NASA POWER model/reanalysis value verifies a grid-cell weather condition, but one short window cannot establish crop damage, sugar output or a net price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Reservoirs, irrigation, planting type, state variation and government export/ethanol policy can offset weather.

Model grid context, not a farm observation or area-weighted crop condition.

Next check: A newer weather window plus an independent, geographically matching official crop, crush, recovery or balance observation.

T2M MAX: 34.715714285714284 C (2026-10-12; São Paulo cane regional sample, Brazil).

The retained NASA POWER model/reanalysis value verifies a grid-cell weather condition, but one short window cannot establish crop damage, sugar output or a net price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Weather has opposing harvest/growth channels; mill inventories and sugar/ethanol allocation dominate conversion to sugar.

Model grid context, not a farm observation or area-weighted crop condition.

Next check: A newer weather window plus an independent, geographically matching official crop, crush, recovery or balance observation.

GWETROOT: 0.5057142857142857 1 (2026-10-12; São Paulo cane regional sample, Brazil).

The retained NASA POWER model/reanalysis value verifies a grid-cell weather condition, but one short window cannot establish crop damage, sugar output or a net price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Weather has opposing harvest/growth channels; mill inventories and sugar/ethanol allocation dominate conversion to sugar.

Model grid context, not a farm observation or area-weighted crop condition.

Next check: A newer weather window plus an independent, geographically matching official crop, crush, recovery or balance observation.

CONAB’s August 2026 survey estimates Brazil’s 2026/27 sugarcane production at 705,232,700 tonnes, with harvest area of 9,052.4 thousand hectares and cane yield of 77,905 kg per hectare.

More estimated Brazilian cane raises potential feedstock availability and is directionally bearish for raw sugar, but it is an estimate of cane rather than sugar output.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Sugar recovery, sugar-versus-ethanol allocation, Brazilian stocks, exports and demand can reverse or remove the effect.

Official forecast fact, not realized production and not converted to sugar tonnes.

Next check: New CONAB estimate, or a current UNICA sugar-output/recovery release.

ISO public August 2026 HEADLINES estimated the 2025/26 global balance at a 1.1 million tonne surplus, down from 2.2 million tonnes in May.

A smaller stated global surplus is directionally supportive because the official balance estimate directly combines supply and demand at global scope.

Price confidence: medium

Counter-case: A surplus remains; the public headline lacks stock, country, raw/white and methodology detail, and future production, trade, policy or demand can change the balance.

Public HEADLINES fact only; paid detail was not accessed and no raw/white or cane/beet split is inferred.

Next check: Next ISO quarterly public headline or revision of the August edition.

Through 16 July 2025 in the 2025/2026 crop season, UNICA reported cumulative sugarcane crush of 256,140,000 tonnes for Brazil Centre-South, 9.61% below the comparable prior-season level.

At the July 2025 cut-off, lower Centre-South processing/output was supply-supportive in the stated historical context.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: The observation is old; regional output, recovery, allocation, stocks, trade and later releases can outweigh it.

Verified historical regional fact retained for provenance, not a live price signal.

Next check: A newly retained same-season UNICA release.

Through 16 July 2025 in the 2025/2026 crop season, UNICA reported cumulative sugar production of 15,660,000 tonnes for Brazil Centre-South, 9.22% below the comparable prior-season level.

At the July 2025 cut-off, lower Centre-South processing/output was supply-supportive in the stated historical context.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: The observation is old; regional output, recovery, allocation, stocks, trade and later releases can outweigh it.

Verified historical regional fact retained for provenance, not a live price signal.

Next check: A newly retained same-season UNICA release.

Through 16 July 2025 in the 2025/2026 season, UNICA reported cumulative Centre-South ethanol production of 11.62 billion litres.

The historical ethanol volume is verified but cannot establish sugar availability without a source-defined allocation, recovery, stock and demand bridge.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Ethanol and sugar volumes are separate source measurements; inferring one from the other would create a false conversion.

Verified historical processing fact; never used to calculate sugar-versus-ethanol allocation.

Next check: A newly retained UNICA release that explicitly reports the needed separate measures.

Brazil-reported 2025 exports of HS 170114 raw cane sugar were 29,458,616,679 kg net weight.

The 2025-versus-2024 comparison was historically supply-supportive, but has no retained 2026 same-definition flow or current physical pathway.

Price confidence: medium

Counter-case: Annual customs data can be revised and may reflect stocks, destination demand, logistics or sales timing rather than less supply; other origins can offset it.

Annual national customs flow retained as a historical fact; not port loadings or ICE deliverable supply.

Next check: Retain a 2026 Brazil HS 170114 annual record and current export/stock/logistics pathway before reactivating price pressure.

China-reported 2024 imports of HS 170114 raw cane sugar were 4,001,574,178.759 kg net weight.

The annual customs-flow fact is verified, but the retained 2024 observation has no current comparison in this pipeline.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Imports can reflect demand, stocks, quota/policy, refining and timing; a raw volume alone does not establish net price pressure.

Verified but stale annual customs fact; it is not represented as current demand.

Next check: Retain a revised or newer China HS 170114 annual record and a like-for-like comparison.