usdm_conus_d2_plus_percent: 30.33 percent_of_CONUS_area for 2026-10-13

The measured variable is drought-area share over all CONUS; this is not corn-acreage exposure.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Most severity bands eased week on week, while D4 increased slightly; precipitation, harvest stage and corn-area weighting are not in this statistic.

The measured variable is drought-area share over all CONUS; this is not corn-acreage exposure.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

usdm_conus_d0_plus_percent: 74.54 percent_of_CONUS_area for 2026-10-13

The measured variable is drought-area share over all CONUS; this is not corn-acreage exposure.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Most severity bands eased week on week, while D4 increased slightly; precipitation, harvest stage and corn-area weighting are not in this statistic.

The measured variable is drought-area share over all CONUS; this is not corn-acreage exposure.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

Wisconsin: drought_d2_or_worse 43.5 percent of state land area at 2026-10-13; comparator difference +3.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

Missouri: drought_d1_or_worse 48.77 percent of state land area at 2026-10-13; comparator difference +3.99.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

Wisconsin: drought_d0_or_worse 57.72 percent of state land area at 2026-10-13; comparator difference +2.91.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

Illinois: drought_d1_or_worse 20.9 percent of state land area at 2026-10-13; comparator difference +11.31.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

Indiana: drought_d0_or_worse 18.8 percent of state land area at 2026-10-13; comparator difference +7.6.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

Missouri: drought_d0_or_worse 69.56 percent of state land area at 2026-10-13; comparator difference +8.83.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

Illinois: drought_d0_or_worse 36.87 percent of state land area at 2026-10-13; comparator difference +2.09.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

Missouri: drought_d2_or_worse 30.32 percent of state land area at 2026-10-13; comparator difference +5.22.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

usdm_conus_d3_plus_percent: 9.79 percent_of_CONUS_area for 2026-10-13

The measured variable is drought-area share over all CONUS; this is not corn-acreage exposure.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Most severity bands eased week on week, while D4 increased slightly; precipitation, harvest stage and corn-area weighting are not in this statistic.

The measured variable is drought-area share over all CONUS; this is not corn-acreage exposure.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

usdm_conus_d4_plus_percent: 1.3 percent_of_CONUS_area for 2026-10-13

The measured variable is drought-area share over all CONUS; this is not corn-acreage exposure.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Most severity bands eased week on week, while D4 increased slightly; precipitation, harvest stage and corn-area weighting are not in this statistic.

The measured variable is drought-area share over all CONUS; this is not corn-acreage exposure.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

usdm_conus_d1_plus_percent: 53.73 percent_of_CONUS_area for 2026-10-13

The measured variable is drought-area share over all CONUS; this is not corn-acreage exposure.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Most severity bands eased week on week, while D4 increased slightly; precipitation, harvest stage and corn-area weighting are not in this statistic.

The measured variable is drought-area share over all CONUS; this is not corn-acreage exposure.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

corn_harvested_percent: 33.0 percent for 2026-10-12

Harvest progress affects the timing of newly available grain. If faster than the same-week norm it leans against near-term scarcity; if behind, it can delay supply.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Week-on-week progress and the five-year-normal comparison point in opposite directions; progress does not measure harvested volume or national stocks.

Harvest progress affects the timing of newly available grain. If faster than the same-week norm it leans against near-term scarcity; if behind, it can delay supply.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

corn_mature_percent: 91.0 percent for 2026-10-12

More of the selected-state crop is mature, reducing unresolved field-production risk and potentially bringing supply forward; this is progress, not bushels produced.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: The report's current 91% is near its five-year comparator, harvest is not complete, and later availability, yield and demand still matter.

More of the selected-state crop is mature, reducing unresolved field-production risk and potentially bringing supply forward; this is progress, not bushels produced.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

corn_condition_good_excellent_percent: 56.0 percent for 2026-10-11

Good-plus-excellent crop condition informs remaining yield risk, but the selected-state percentage is not a production estimate.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: The crop is late-season and mostly mature; the report's condition score is not acreage/yield weighted and cannot quantify remaining production.

Good-plus-excellent crop condition informs remaining yield risk, but the selected-state percentage is not a production estimate.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

Ohio: progress_harvested 11.0 percent at 2026-10-11; comparator difference -11.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

Iowa: progress_harvested 14.0 percent at 2026-10-11; comparator difference -20.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

Wisconsin: progress_mature 89.0 percent at 2026-10-11; comparator difference +6.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

South Dakota: progress_harvested 15.0 percent at 2026-10-11; comparator difference -16.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

Nebraska: progress_harvested 27.0 percent at 2026-10-11; comparator difference -8.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

Minnesota: progress_harvested 25.0 percent at 2026-10-11; comparator difference -8.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

Ohio: progress_mature 68.0 percent at 2026-10-11; comparator difference -14.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

Wisconsin: progress_harvested 16.0 percent at 2026-10-11; comparator difference -2.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

Illinois: progress_mature 96.0 percent at 2026-10-11; comparator difference +2.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

North Dakota: progress_harvested 23.0 percent at 2026-10-11; comparator difference +2.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

Missouri: progress_harvested 64.0 percent at 2026-10-11; comparator difference +3.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

North Dakota: progress_mature 90.0 percent at 2026-10-11; comparator difference +5.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

Illinois: progress_harvested 51.0 percent at 2026-10-11; comparator difference +7.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

USDA NASS reported Iowa corn harvest at 14% for the week ending 2026-10-11, versus the 2021-2025 same-week average of 34% (20 percentage points below). The previous week was 7%. Crop year: 2026.

The archived fact is verifiable, but the required current comparator or price-relevant linked data are absent.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Other supply, demand, stocks, processing and logistics can offset.

Other supply, demand, stocks, processing and logistics can offset.

Next check: A newer official source vintage; Next scheduled source release

US fuel ethanol ending stocks: 23942.0 thousand_barrels for 2026-10-09

A weekly ethanol inventory increase may indicate product accumulation and weaker processor margins, potentially limiting corn demand.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Stocks also reflect refinery/seasonal timing; output rose in the latest period and no margin or demand series is joined.

A weekly ethanol inventory increase may indicate product accumulation and weaker processor margins, potentially limiting corn demand.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

US fuel ethanol production: 1065.0 thousand_barrels_per_day for 2026-10-09

Higher ethanol output is directionally consistent with more processor activity and potentially more corn grind.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Ethanol output is not corn grind; margins, plant stocks, blend demand and other feedstocks may offset.

Higher ethanol output is directionally consistent with more processor activity and potentially more corn grind.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

weekly_reported_exports: 1362.6 thousand_metric_tons for 2026-10-08

Export sales are direct U.S. corn demand/flow observations, but shipment, new-sales and outstanding-sales metrics can move in different directions in one report.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Commitments are not port inspections or customs shipments; cancellations, destination changes, futures expectations, domestic demand and competing origins can offset.

Export sales are direct U.S. corn demand/flow observations, but shipment, new-sales and outstanding-sales metrics can move in different directions in one report.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

outstanding_sales: 11901.4 thousand_metric_tons for 2026-10-08

Export sales are direct U.S. corn demand/flow observations, but shipment, new-sales and outstanding-sales metrics can move in different directions in one report.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Commitments are not port inspections or customs shipments; cancellations, destination changes, futures expectations, domestic demand and competing origins can offset.

Export sales are direct U.S. corn demand/flow observations, but shipment, new-sales and outstanding-sales metrics can move in different directions in one report.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

net_sales: 1122.4 thousand_metric_tons for 2026-10-08

Export sales are direct U.S. corn demand/flow observations, but shipment, new-sales and outstanding-sales metrics can move in different directions in one report.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Commitments are not port inspections or customs shipments; cancellations, destination changes, futures expectations, domestic demand and competing origins can offset.

Export sales are direct U.S. corn demand/flow observations, but shipment, new-sales and outstanding-sales metrics can move in different directions in one report.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

accumulated_exports: 8764.2 thousand_metric_tons for 2026-10-08

Export sales are direct U.S. corn demand/flow observations, but shipment, new-sales and outstanding-sales metrics can move in different directions in one report.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Commitments are not port inspections or customs shipments; cancellations, destination changes, futures expectations, domestic demand and competing origins can offset.

Export sales are direct U.S. corn demand/flow observations, but shipment, new-sales and outstanding-sales metrics can move in different directions in one report.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

For October 6, 2026, U.S. Drought Monitor statistics reported D2-or-higher drought across 31.45% of the contiguous U.S. area.

The archived fact is verifiable, but the required current comparator or price-relevant linked data are absent.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Other supply, demand, stocks, processing and logistics can offset.

Other supply, demand, stocks, processing and logistics can offset.

Next check: A newer official source vintage; Next scheduled source release

usdm conus d3 plus percent: 9.87 percent_of_CONUS_area; Continental United States (CONUS); 2026-10-06.

The measured variable is drought-area share over all CONUS; this is not corn-acreage exposure.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Most severity bands eased week on week, while D4 increased slightly; precipitation, harvest stage and corn-area weighting are not in this statistic.

The measured variable is drought-area share over all CONUS; this is not corn-acreage exposure.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

usdm conus d4 plus percent: 1.15 percent_of_CONUS_area; Continental United States (CONUS); 2026-10-06.

The measured variable is drought-area share over all CONUS; this is not corn-acreage exposure.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Most severity bands eased week on week, while D4 increased slightly; precipitation, harvest stage and corn-area weighting are not in this statistic.

The measured variable is drought-area share over all CONUS; this is not corn-acreage exposure.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

usdm conus d1 plus percent: 55.21 percent_of_CONUS_area; Continental United States (CONUS); 2026-10-06.

The measured variable is drought-area share over all CONUS; this is not corn-acreage exposure.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Most severity bands eased week on week, while D4 increased slightly; precipitation, harvest stage and corn-area weighting are not in this statistic.

The measured variable is drought-area share over all CONUS; this is not corn-acreage exposure.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

usdm conus d0 plus percent: 75.83 percent_of_CONUS_area; Continental United States (CONUS); 2026-10-06.

The measured variable is drought-area share over all CONUS; this is not corn-acreage exposure.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Most severity bands eased week on week, while D4 increased slightly; precipitation, harvest stage and corn-area weighting are not in this statistic.

The measured variable is drought-area share over all CONUS; this is not corn-acreage exposure.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

corn condition good excellent percent: 54.0 percent; United States selected states; 2026-10-04.

Good-plus-excellent crop condition informs remaining yield risk, but the selected-state percentage is not a production estimate.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: The crop is late-season and mostly mature; the report's condition score is not acreage/yield weighted and cannot quantify remaining production.

Good-plus-excellent crop condition informs remaining yield risk, but the selected-state percentage is not a production estimate.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

corn harvested percent: 23.0 percent; United States selected states; 2026-10-04.

Harvest progress affects the timing of newly available grain. If faster than the same-week norm it leans against near-term scarcity; if behind, it can delay supply.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Week-on-week progress and the five-year-normal comparison point in opposite directions; progress does not measure harvested volume or national stocks.

Harvest progress affects the timing of newly available grain. If faster than the same-week norm it leans against near-term scarcity; if behind, it can delay supply.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

corn mature percent: 83.0 percent; United States selected states; 2026-10-04.

More of the selected-state crop is mature, reducing unresolved field-production risk and potentially bringing supply forward; this is progress, not bushels produced.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: The report's current 91% is near its five-year comparator, harvest is not complete, and later availability, yield and demand still matter.

More of the selected-state crop is mature, reducing unresolved field-production risk and potentially bringing supply forward; this is progress, not bushels produced.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

For the week ending October 2, 2026, EIA reported U.S. fuel ethanol production of 1,053 thousand barrels per day, 46 thousand barrels per day above the 1,007 reported for September 25, 2026.

Higher ethanol output is directionally consistent with more processor activity and potentially more corn grind.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Ethanol output is not corn grind; margins, plant stocks, blend demand and other feedstocks may offset.

Ethanol output is not corn grind; margins, plant stocks, blend demand and other feedstocks may offset.

Next check: A newer official source vintage; Next scheduled source release

US fuel ethanol ending stocks: 23743.0 thousand_barrels for 2026-10-02

A weekly ethanol inventory decrease may indicate less product accumulation and firmer processor margins, potentially supporting corn demand.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Stocks also reflect refinery/seasonal timing; output rose in the latest period and no margin or demand series is joined.

A weekly ethanol inventory decrease may indicate less product accumulation and firmer processor margins, potentially supporting corn demand.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

FAO-AMIS revised its 2026/27 world maize production forecast from 1309.1 to 1302.0 million tonnes in Market Monitor No. 142 (2026-10-02); page 4 reports a -7.157 million-tonne change.

Lower production forecast is a supply-tightening input; utilization and exports also fell in the same report while ending stocks were nearly flat, so the net world-balance implication is mixed.

Price confidence: medium

Counter-case: Demand/utilization and trade downgrades offset the smaller crop; stocks changed only slightly; a report revision does not establish a futures surprise.

Lower production forecast is a supply-tightening input; utilization and exports also fell in the same report while ending stocks were nearly flat, so the net world-balance implication is mixed.

Next check: Next AMIS Market Monitor revision; Material change to world demand, production, stocks or trade estimates

conab_brazil_corn_second_crop_production: 113254.5 thousand_metric_tons for 2026-10-01

The official first outlook expects corn production up 2.4% and planted area up 4.9%, while domestic use grows 6.6%; supply expansion and demand expansion offset.

Price confidence: medium

Counter-case: The output is a first forecast, not realized production; high exports and a 14.9 Mt carryover-stock projection also shape exportable availability.

The official first outlook expects corn production up 2.4% and planted area up 4.9%, while domestic use grows 6.6%; supply expansion and demand expansion offset.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

conab_brazil_corn_second_crop_yield: 6126.303933660056 kilograms_per_hectare for 2026-10-01

A lower expected yield constrains supply potential and, all else equal, supports corn price pressure.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Area expansion and domestic use/export demand alter the net balance; first forecast yield is uncertain.

A lower expected yield constrains supply potential and, all else equal, supports corn price pressure.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

conab_brazil_corn_first_crop_area: 4540.200000000001 thousand_hectares for 2026-10-01

More planted area raises supply capacity and, all else equal, is bearish for corn price pressure.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: CONAB forecasts lower yield in the same early outlook; area planted is not harvested area, production or export availability, and domestic use is also projected higher.

More planted area raises supply capacity and, all else equal, is bearish for corn price pressure.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

conab_brazil_corn_first_crop_production: 32102.5 thousand_metric_tons for 2026-10-01

The official first outlook expects corn production up 2.4% and planted area up 4.9%, while domestic use grows 6.6%; supply expansion and demand expansion offset.

Price confidence: medium

Counter-case: The output is a first forecast, not realized production; high exports and a 14.9 Mt carryover-stock projection also shape exportable availability.

The official first outlook expects corn production up 2.4% and planted area up 4.9%, while domestic use grows 6.6%; supply expansion and demand expansion offset.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

conab_brazil_corn_first_crop_yield: 7070.706620853705 kilograms_per_hectare for 2026-10-01

A lower expected yield constrains supply potential and, all else equal, supports corn price pressure.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Area expansion and domestic use/export demand alter the net balance; first forecast yield is uncertain.

A lower expected yield constrains supply potential and, all else equal, supports corn price pressure.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

conab_brazil_corn_second_crop_area: 18486.600000000002 thousand_hectares for 2026-10-01

More planted area raises supply capacity and, all else equal, is bearish for corn price pressure.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: CONAB forecasts lower yield in the same early outlook; area planted is not harvested area, production or export availability, and domestic use is also projected higher.

More planted area raises supply capacity and, all else equal, is bearish for corn price pressure.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

USDA NASS reported an October 1, 2026 forecast of U.S. corn production of 16,033,944 thousand bushels.

The official forecast revisions point in opposite directions across comparator horizons: larger than the previous forecast but below prior-year production.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: This report is a production forecast, not realized output; it does not establish demand, stocks, export availability or the market's prior expectations.

This report is a production forecast, not realized output; it does not establish demand, stocks, export availability or the market's prior expectations.

Next check: A newer official source vintage; Next scheduled source release

us_corn_harvested_area: 88506.0 thousand_acres for 2026-10-01

The official forecast revisions point in opposite directions across comparator horizons: larger than the previous forecast but below prior-year production.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: This report is a production forecast, not realized output; it does not establish demand, stocks, export availability or the market's prior expectations.

The official forecast revisions point in opposite directions across comparator horizons: larger than the previous forecast but below prior-year production.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

us_corn_yield: 181.2 bushels_per_acre for 2026-10-01

The official forecast revisions point in opposite directions across comparator horizons: larger than the previous forecast but below prior-year production.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: This report is a production forecast, not realized output; it does not establish demand, stocks, export availability or the market's prior expectations.

The official forecast revisions point in opposite directions across comparator horizons: larger than the previous forecast but below prior-year production.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

For the week ending October 1, 2026, USDA FAS reported U.S. corn exports of 1,597.8 thousand metric tons.

The archived fact is verifiable, but the required current comparator or price-relevant linked data are absent.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Other supply, demand, stocks, processing and logistics can offset.

Other supply, demand, stocks, processing and logistics can offset.

Next check: A newer official source vintage; Next scheduled source release

outstanding sales: 12141.5 thousand_metric_tons; United States; 2026-10-01.

Export sales are direct U.S. corn demand/flow observations, but shipment, new-sales and outstanding-sales metrics can move in different directions in one report.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Commitments are not port inspections or customs shipments; cancellations, destination changes, futures expectations, domestic demand and competing origins can offset.

Export sales are direct U.S. corn demand/flow observations, but shipment, new-sales and outstanding-sales metrics can move in different directions in one report.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

net sales: 769.5 thousand_metric_tons; United States; 2026-10-01.

Export sales are direct U.S. corn demand/flow observations, but shipment, new-sales and outstanding-sales metrics can move in different directions in one report.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Commitments are not port inspections or customs shipments; cancellations, destination changes, futures expectations, domestic demand and competing origins can offset.

Export sales are direct U.S. corn demand/flow observations, but shipment, new-sales and outstanding-sales metrics can move in different directions in one report.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

accumulated exports: 7401.6 thousand_metric_tons; United States; 2026-10-01.

Export sales are direct U.S. corn demand/flow observations, but shipment, new-sales and outstanding-sales metrics can move in different directions in one report.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Commitments are not port inspections or customs shipments; cancellations, destination changes, futures expectations, domestic demand and competing origins can offset.

Export sales are direct U.S. corn demand/flow observations, but shipment, new-sales and outstanding-sales metrics can move in different directions in one report.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

North Dakota: progress_dented 96.0 percent at 2026-09-27; comparator difference +6.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

Minnesota: progress_dented 98.0 percent at 2026-09-27; comparator difference +3.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

Illinois: progress_dented 97.0 percent at 2026-09-27; comparator difference +3.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

Ohio: progress_dented 93.0 percent at 2026-09-27; comparator difference +2.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

US fuel ethanol ending stocks: 23865.0 thousand_barrels for 2026-09-25

A weekly ethanol inventory decrease may indicate less product accumulation and firmer processor margins, potentially supporting corn demand.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Stocks also reflect refinery/seasonal timing; output rose in the latest period and no margin or demand series is joined.

A weekly ethanol inventory increase may indicate product accumulation and weaker processor margins, potentially limiting corn demand.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

US fuel ethanol production: 1007.0 thousand_barrels_per_day for 2026-09-25

Lower ethanol output is directionally consistent with less processor activity and potentially less corn grind.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Ethanol output is not corn grind; margins, plant stocks, blend demand and other feedstocks may offset.

Higher ethanol output is directionally consistent with more processor activity and potentially more corn grind.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

US fuel ethanol production: 1028.0 thousand_barrels_per_day for 2026-09-18

Lower ethanol output is directionally consistent with less processor activity and potentially less corn grind.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Ethanol output is not corn grind; margins, plant stocks, blend demand and other feedstocks may offset.

Higher ethanol output is directionally consistent with more processor activity and potentially more corn grind.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

US fuel ethanol ending stocks: 24683.0 thousand_barrels for 2026-09-18

A weekly ethanol inventory decrease may indicate less product accumulation and firmer processor margins, potentially supporting corn demand.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Stocks also reflect refinery/seasonal timing; output rose in the latest period and no margin or demand series is joined.

A weekly ethanol inventory increase may indicate product accumulation and weaker processor margins, potentially limiting corn demand.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

US fuel ethanol production: 1099.0 thousand_barrels_per_day for 2026-09-11

Higher ethanol output is directionally consistent with more processor activity and potentially more corn grind.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Ethanol output is not corn grind; margins, plant stocks, blend demand and other feedstocks may offset.

Higher ethanol output is directionally consistent with more processor activity and potentially more corn grind.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

US fuel ethanol ending stocks: 25220.0 thousand_barrels for 2026-09-11

A weekly ethanol inventory increase may indicate product accumulation and weaker processor margins, potentially limiting corn demand.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Stocks also reflect refinery/seasonal timing; output rose in the latest period and no margin or demand series is joined.

A weekly ethanol inventory increase may indicate product accumulation and weaker processor margins, potentially limiting corn demand.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

South Dakota: progress_dough 100.0 percent at 2026-09-06; comparator difference +5.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

Illinois: progress_dough 96.0 percent at 2026-09-06; comparator difference +2.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

Wisconsin: progress_dough 93.0 percent at 2026-09-06; comparator difference +5.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

Minnesota: progress_dough 98.0 percent at 2026-09-06; comparator difference +3.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

Missouri: progress_dough 99.0 percent at 2026-09-06; comparator difference +2.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

Ohio: progress_dough 100.0 percent at 2026-09-06; comparator difference +6.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

North Dakota: progress_dough 96.0 percent at 2026-09-06; comparator difference +9.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

US fuel ethanol ending stocks: 25187.0 thousand_barrels for 2026-09-04

A weekly ethanol inventory increase may indicate product accumulation and weaker processor margins, potentially limiting corn demand.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Stocks also reflect refinery/seasonal timing; output rose in the latest period and no margin or demand series is joined.

A weekly ethanol inventory decrease may indicate less product accumulation and firmer processor margins, potentially supporting corn demand.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

US fuel ethanol production: 1099.0 thousand_barrels_per_day for 2026-09-04

Lower ethanol output is directionally consistent with less processor activity and potentially less corn grind.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Ethanol output is not corn grind; margins, plant stocks, blend demand and other feedstocks may offset.

Higher ethanol output is directionally consistent with more processor activity and potentially more corn grind.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

US corn on-farm stocks: 787.0 million_bushels for 2026-09-01

The source verifies on-farm/off-farm levels but supplies no like-for-like year-ago comparison for this subcomponent in the headline.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Total stocks rose 35% year over year and disappearance rose; storage location alone does not identify futures direction.

The source verifies on-farm/off-farm levels but supplies no like-for-like year-ago comparison for this subcomponent in the headline.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

US corn indicated disappearance: 3.2 billion_bushels for 2026-09-01

June-August disappearance was 3.20 billion bushels versus 3.10 billion a year earlier, a demand-supportive increase.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Disappearance is a residual use/flow measure and the same release reports total stocks up 35% year over year.

June-August disappearance was 3.20 billion bushels versus 3.10 billion a year earlier, a demand-supportive increase.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

US corn off-farm stocks: 1.31 billion_bushels for 2026-09-01

The source verifies on-farm/off-farm levels but supplies no like-for-like year-ago comparison for this subcomponent in the headline.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Total stocks rose 35% year over year and disappearance rose; storage location alone does not identify futures direction.

The source verifies on-farm/off-farm levels but supplies no like-for-like year-ago comparison for this subcomponent in the headline.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

US corn stocks in all positions: 2.1 billion_bushels for 2026-09-01

September 1 total corn stocks are up 35% year over year, a large available-supply cushion, while June-August disappearance is also up 3.2% year over year.

Price confidence: medium

Counter-case: The inventory overhang weighs against price, but stronger disappearance supports demand; both are one official quarterly snapshot.

September 1 total corn stocks are up 35% year over year, a large available-supply cushion, while June-August disappearance is also up 3.2% year over year.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

us_corn_harvested_area: 88506.0 thousand_acres for 2026-09-01

The official forecast revisions point in opposite directions across comparator horizons: larger than the previous forecast but below prior-year production.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: This report is a production forecast, not realized output; it does not establish demand, stocks, export availability or the market's prior expectations.

The official forecast revisions point in opposite directions across comparator horizons: larger than the previous forecast but below prior-year production.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

us_corn_yield: 178.5 bushels_per_acre for 2026-09-01

The official forecast revisions point in opposite directions across comparator horizons: larger than the previous forecast but below prior-year production.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: This report is a production forecast, not realized output; it does not establish demand, stocks, export availability or the market's prior expectations.

The official forecast revisions point in opposite directions across comparator horizons: larger than the previous forecast but below prior-year production.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

us_corn_production: 15799759.0 thousand_bushels for 2026-09-01

The official forecast revisions point in opposite directions across comparator horizons: larger than the previous forecast but below prior-year production.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: This report is a production forecast, not realized output; it does not establish demand, stocks, export availability or the market's prior expectations.

The official forecast revisions point in opposite directions across comparator horizons: larger than the previous forecast but below prior-year production.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

conab brazil corn second crop area: 17824.9 thousand_hectares; Brazil national total; 2026-09-01.

More planted area raises supply capacity and, all else equal, is bearish for corn price pressure.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: CONAB forecasts lower yield in the same early outlook; area planted is not harvested area, production or export availability, and domestic use is also projected higher.

More planted area raises supply capacity and, all else equal, is bearish for corn price pressure.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

conab brazil corn first crop yield: 7190.911210281172 kilograms_per_hectare; Brazil national total; 2026-09-01.

A lower expected yield constrains supply potential and, all else equal, supports corn price pressure.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Area expansion and domestic use/export demand alter the net balance; first forecast yield is uncertain.

A lower expected yield constrains supply potential and, all else equal, supports corn price pressure.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

conab brazil corn second crop production: 112130.8 thousand_metric_tons; Brazil national total; 2026-09-01.

The official first outlook expects corn production up 2.4% and planted area up 4.9%, while domestic use grows 6.6%; supply expansion and demand expansion offset.

Price confidence: medium

Counter-case: The output is a first forecast, not realized production; high exports and a 14.9 Mt carryover-stock projection also shape exportable availability.

The official first outlook expects corn production up 2.4% and planted area up 4.9%, while domestic use grows 6.6%; supply expansion and demand expansion offset.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

conab brazil corn second crop yield: 6290.68589445102 kilograms_per_hectare; Brazil national total; 2026-09-01.

A lower expected yield constrains supply potential and, all else equal, supports corn price pressure.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Area expansion and domestic use/export demand alter the net balance; first forecast yield is uncertain.

A lower expected yield constrains supply potential and, all else equal, supports corn price pressure.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

conab brazil corn first crop production: 29487.8 thousand_metric_tons; Brazil national total; 2026-09-01.

The official first outlook expects corn production up 2.4% and planted area up 4.9%, while domestic use grows 6.6%; supply expansion and demand expansion offset.

Price confidence: medium

Counter-case: The output is a first forecast, not realized production; high exports and a 14.9 Mt carryover-stock projection also shape exportable availability.

The official first outlook expects corn production up 2.4% and planted area up 4.9%, while domestic use grows 6.6%; supply expansion and demand expansion offset.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

conab brazil corn first crop area: 4100.7 thousand_hectares; Brazil national total; 2026-09-01.

More planted area raises supply capacity and, all else equal, is bearish for corn price pressure.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: CONAB forecasts lower yield in the same early outlook; area planted is not harvested area, production or export availability, and domestic use is also projected higher.

More planted area raises supply capacity and, all else equal, is bearish for corn price pressure.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

CONAB's September 2026 estimate for the 2025/26 crop season lists Brazil's second-crop corn production at 112,130.8 thousand metric tons.

The archived fact is verifiable, but the required current comparator or price-relevant linked data are absent.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Other supply, demand, stocks, processing and logistics can offset.

Other supply, demand, stocks, processing and logistics can offset.

Next check: A newer official source vintage; Next scheduled source release

Ohio: monthly_mean_temperature 68.8 degF at 2026-09; comparator difference +3.7.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

Indiana: monthly_mean_daily_max_temperature 82.6 degF at 2026-09; comparator difference +4.7.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

Minnesota: monthly_mean_temperature 62.1 degF at 2026-09; comparator difference +3.5.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

Kansas: monthly_mean_temperature 77.3 degF at 2026-09; comparator difference +8.5.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

South Dakota: monthly_precipitation 3.23 inch at 2026-09; comparator difference +1.32.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

Indiana: monthly_mean_temperature 71.5 degF at 2026-09; comparator difference +5.5.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

Iowa: monthly_precipitation 7.83 inch at 2026-09; comparator difference +4.35.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

Wisconsin: monthly_mean_daily_max_temperature 73.0 degF at 2026-09; comparator difference +2.4.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

Kansas: monthly_precipitation 4.06 inch at 2026-09; comparator difference +1.54.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

South Dakota: monthly_mean_temperature 65.6 degF at 2026-09; comparator difference +4.1.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

Missouri: monthly_mean_temperature 77.0 degF at 2026-09; comparator difference +8.8.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

Iowa: monthly_mean_temperature 68.3 degF at 2026-09; comparator difference +4.6.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

Minnesota: monthly_mean_daily_max_temperature 71.8 degF at 2026-09; comparator difference +2.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

Nebraska: monthly_mean_temperature 69.2 degF at 2026-09; comparator difference +5.4.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

Nebraska: monthly_precipitation 3.78 inch at 2026-09; comparator difference +1.67.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

Illinois: monthly_mean_daily_max_temperature 83.6 degF at 2026-09; comparator difference +5.1.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

Nebraska: monthly_mean_daily_max_temperature 79.6 degF at 2026-09; comparator difference +2.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

North Dakota: monthly_mean_daily_max_temperature 73.2 degF at 2026-09; comparator difference +2.1.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

Illinois: monthly_mean_temperature 73.0 degF at 2026-09; comparator difference +6.2.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

North Dakota: monthly_precipitation 3.01 inch at 2026-09; comparator difference +1.14.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

Missouri: monthly_precipitation 2.82 inch at 2026-09; comparator difference -1.05.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

Ohio: monthly_precipitation 5.14 inch at 2026-09; comparator difference +1.84.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

Missouri: monthly_mean_daily_max_temperature 88.3 degF at 2026-09; comparator difference +8.5.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

Wisconsin: monthly_mean_temperature 62.8 degF at 2026-09; comparator difference +3.3.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

Kansas: monthly_mean_daily_max_temperature 89.0 degF at 2026-09; comparator difference +7.1.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

North Dakota: monthly_mean_temperature 61.7 degF at 2026-09; comparator difference +3.8.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

Minnesota: monthly_precipitation 4.45 inch at 2026-09; comparator difference +1.33.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

Ohio: monthly_mean_daily_max_temperature 78.9 degF at 2026-09; comparator difference +2.3.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

US fuel ethanol production: 1110.0 thousand_barrels_per_day; United States; 2026-08-28.

Lower ethanol output is directionally consistent with less processor activity and potentially less corn grind.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Ethanol output is not corn grind; margins, plant stocks, blend demand and other feedstocks may offset.

Higher ethanol output is directionally consistent with more processor activity and potentially more corn grind.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

US fuel ethanol ending stocks: 25035.0 thousand_barrels; United States; 2026-08-28.

A weekly ethanol inventory decrease may indicate less product accumulation and firmer processor margins, potentially supporting corn demand.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Stocks also reflect refinery/seasonal timing; output rose in the latest period and no margin or demand series is joined.

A weekly ethanol inventory increase may indicate product accumulation and weaker processor margins, potentially limiting corn demand.

Next check: next official release or source revision; material change in price-relevant supply, demand, stock, processing, transport or export evidence

Ohio: progress_silking 100.0 percent at 2026-08-16; comparator difference +3.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

South Dakota: progress_silking 100.0 percent at 2026-08-16; comparator difference +3.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

North Dakota: progress_silking 97.0 percent at 2026-08-16; comparator difference +2.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

Nebraska: progress_silking 96.0 percent at 2026-08-16; comparator difference -2.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

Wisconsin: progress_emerged 97.0 percent at 2026-06-21; comparator difference +3.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

North Dakota: progress_emerged 96.0 percent at 2026-06-21; comparator difference +5.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

South Dakota: progress_emerged 100.0 percent at 2026-06-21; comparator difference +2.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

Wisconsin: progress_planted 97.0 percent at 2026-06-07; comparator difference +3.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

North Dakota: progress_planted 98.0 percent at 2026-06-07; comparator difference +6.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

South Dakota: progress_planted 99.0 percent at 2026-06-07; comparator difference +2.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.

Ohio: progress_planted 89.0 percent at 2026-06-07; comparator difference -3.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: State monthly precipitation, monthly mean temperature, monthly mean daily maximum temperature and USDM drought area are joined only to USDA NASS stage/condition rows from the same state, crop year and overlapping calendar month. Monthly overlap is contextual, not crop-area-weighted exposure or causal attribution. Irrigation, within-month timing, later harvest, global supply and feed substitution can offset.

The state/month observation is a real crop/weather context fact, but state-area weather is not corn-acreage-weighted and does not establish production or a CBOT price effect.

Next check: Do not revive the old price assessment by changing its date.; Reassess only with fresh source observations and current same-state/crop-year stage, crop-area exposure, and official yield/production evidence.