ECA Western Europe Q3 processed cocoa-bean usage was 348,215 tonnes, up 10,862 tonnes (3.2%) versus Q3 2025 under the same disclosed participant count.

Higher same-series regional bean processing is incremental near-term physical processing demand and therefore creates upward cocoa-bean price pressure, all else equal.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: The 19-company Western European panel is not global demand; processor inventory timing, regional substitution, margins, origin supply and stocks can offset it.

The 19-company Western European panel is not global demand; processor inventory timing, regional substitution, margins, origin supply and stocks can offset it.

Next check: Reassess when ECA Q4 2026 is published, or when a comparable official origin-supply, stock or global-grindings release arrives.

NASA POWER Daloa cocoa-belt regional sample PRECTOTCORR condition screen: 52.370000000000005 mm over seven days for 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-15 (wet_relative_to_monthly_climatology).

A source-backed regional weather-condition deviation that may warrant monitoring, without a claimed crop-loss or futures-price effect.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Other supply, demand and inventory changes can offset this observation.

Shade, tree age, irrigation and district heterogeneity; disease requires an official incidence report.

Next check: Next CCC crop/arrivals release and ICCO market report; seek independently reported crop condition and quality.

NASA POWER recorded corrected precipitation of 2.18 mm/day on 2026-10-10 at the Ghana cocoa-belt proxy grid near Kumasi (6.69, -1.62), during the lab's main-crop development/harvest context for cocoa year 2026/27.

One grid point cannot establish national rainfall, farm conditions, crop damage or yield. Other origins, inventories and later conditions can offset relevance.

Next check: Subsequent NASA POWER daily retrievals and independent public origin production evidence.

NASA POWER recorded corrected precipitation of 5.53 mm/day on 2026-10-10 at the Côte d'Ivoire cocoa-belt proxy grid near Daloa (6.87, -6.45), during the lab's main-crop development/harvest context for cocoa year 2026/27.

One grid point is not a farm, a cocoa-area polygon, or national rainfall. Soil, disease, later weather, other origins and inventories may alter any physical-market relevance.

Next check: Subsequent NASA POWER daily retrievals and independent public origin production evidence.

ICCO public 2024/25 summary: world gross production +8.5% to 4.69m tonnes, grindings -3.3% to 4.65m tonnes, estimated surplus 37,000 tonnes, end-season stocks +3.9% to 1.46m tonnes and stocks-to-grindings 31.4%.

More estimated production and stocks alongside lower grindings indicate a looser reported 2024/25 global bean balance, which was downward pressure at that historical horizon, all else equal.

Price confidence: medium

Counter-case: The figures are estimates in a public summary; origin quality, location of stocks, later revisions and subsequent crop conditions can overturn the historical implication.

The figures are estimates in a public summary; origin quality, location of stocks, later revisions and subsequent crop conditions can overturn the historical implication.

Next check: Replace only with a newer official ICCO balance release plus current origin supply, stocks or processing evidence.

Historical official comparison for World total: official_estimate_crop_year_change changed from 5016 to 4368 thousand_tonnes between 2022/23 and 2023/24.

Same publisher, metric, geography, unit and publication vintage; adjacent crop-year estimates only. Not an actual receipt, stock change or current crop condition.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Other supply, demand and inventory changes can offset this observation.

Estimate methodology, stocks, processing mix, quality, logistics and other origins can offset the arithmetic change.

Next check: Next ICCO production/grindings release; current CCC/COCOBOD arrivals or crop update if publicly retained.

Historical official comparison for Ghana: official_estimate_crop_year_change changed from 654 to 449 thousand_tonnes between 2022/23 and 2023/24.

Same publisher, metric, geography, unit and publication vintage; adjacent crop-year estimates only. Not an actual receipt, stock change or current crop condition.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Other supply, demand and inventory changes can offset this observation.

Estimate methodology, stocks, processing mix, quality, logistics and other origins can offset the arithmetic change.

Next check: Next ICCO production/grindings release; current CCC/COCOBOD arrivals or crop update if publicly retained.

Historical official comparison for Ecuador: official_estimate_crop_year_change changed from 454 to 419 thousand_tonnes between 2022/23 and 2023/24.

Same publisher, metric, geography, unit and publication vintage; adjacent crop-year estimates only. Not an actual receipt, stock change or current crop condition.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Other supply, demand and inventory changes can offset this observation.

Estimate methodology, stocks, processing mix, quality, logistics and other origins can offset the arithmetic change.

Next check: Next ICCO production/grindings release; current CCC/COCOBOD arrivals or crop update if publicly retained.

Historical official comparison for Côte d'Ivoire: official_estimate_crop_year_change changed from 2241 to 1674 thousand_tonnes between 2022/23 and 2023/24.

Same publisher, metric, geography, unit and publication vintage; adjacent crop-year estimates only. Not an actual receipt, stock change or current crop condition.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Other supply, demand and inventory changes can offset this observation.

Estimate methodology, stocks, processing mix, quality, logistics and other origins can offset the arithmetic change.

Next check: Next ICCO production/grindings release; current CCC/COCOBOD arrivals or crop update if publicly retained.

Historical official comparison for World total: processing_estimate_crop_year_change changed from 5058 to 4818 thousand_tonnes between 2022/23 and 2023/24.

Same publisher, metric, geography, unit and publication vintage; adjacent crop-year estimates only. Not an actual receipt, stock change or current crop condition.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Other supply, demand and inventory changes can offset this observation.

Estimate methodology, stocks, processing mix, quality, logistics and other origins can offset the arithmetic change.

Next check: Next ICCO production/grindings release; current CCC/COCOBOD arrivals or crop update if publicly retained.

Historical official comparison for Ghana: processing_estimate_crop_year_change changed from 250 to 194 thousand_tonnes between 2022/23 and 2023/24.

Same publisher, metric, geography, unit and publication vintage; adjacent crop-year estimates only. Not an actual receipt, stock change or current crop condition.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Other supply, demand and inventory changes can offset this observation.

Estimate methodology, stocks, processing mix, quality, logistics and other origins can offset the arithmetic change.

Next check: Next ICCO production/grindings release; current CCC/COCOBOD arrivals or crop update if publicly retained.

Historical official comparison for Europe: processing_estimate_crop_year_change changed from 1792 to 1750 thousand_tonnes between 2022/23 and 2023/24.

Same publisher, metric, geography, unit and publication vintage; adjacent crop-year estimates only. Not an actual receipt, stock change or current crop condition.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Other supply, demand and inventory changes can offset this observation.

Estimate methodology, stocks, processing mix, quality, logistics and other origins can offset the arithmetic change.

Next check: Next ICCO production/grindings release; current CCC/COCOBOD arrivals or crop update if publicly retained.

Historical official comparison for Côte d'Ivoire: processing_estimate_crop_year_change changed from 793 to 744 thousand_tonnes between 2022/23 and 2023/24.

Same publisher, metric, geography, unit and publication vintage; adjacent crop-year estimates only. Not an actual receipt, stock change or current crop condition.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Other supply, demand and inventory changes can offset this observation.

Estimate methodology, stocks, processing mix, quality, logistics and other origins can offset the arithmetic change.

Next check: Next ICCO production/grindings release; current CCC/COCOBOD arrivals or crop update if publicly retained.

The Conseil Café-Cacao-origin open-data record reports Côte d'Ivoire cocoa exports of 2,053,361 tonnes for calendar year 2023.

The source is a historical annual dataset, not a live export-flow feed, and it supplies no publication date in the preserved response.

Next check: A newer CCC/open-data release and separately sourced current customs or port evidence.

The Conseil Café-Cacao-origin open-data record reports Côte d'Ivoire cocoa-bean production of 1,822,441 tonnes for calendar year 2023.

This is not a live arrivals, current harvest, quality, export-flow or stock series. The preserved source gives the calendar year but no publication date.

Next check: A newer CCC/open-data release and the next ICCO production update.