USDA NASS reported Texas cotton harvest at 38% for the week ending 2026-10-11, versus the 2021-2025 same-week average of 34% (4 percentage points above). The previous week was 35%. Crop year: 2026.

Progress measures timing, not harvested quantity, yield, quality or net available supply. Later fieldwork, stocks and other producing regions can offset this timing difference. No weather-caused production loss is established. Marketing year is not assigned to this fieldwork statistic.

Next check: Next USDA NASS Crop Progress release, expected October 19, 2026; confirm actual issue and replace this comparison with its new reference week.

For the week ending October 4, 2026, USDA NASS reported 23 percent of cotton harvested across 15 selected states, versus the 2021-2025 average of 21 percent; the release states that these states harvested 99 percent of 2025 cotton acreage.

Harvest progress is not final production, quality, abandonment, export availability, or price direction; regional mix, later weather and revisions may change the picture.

Next check: Next USDA NASS Crop Progress release and the next NASS Crop Production release.

For the week ending October 4, 2026, USDA NASS reported 27 percent good and 6 percent excellent cotton condition across 15 selected states, or 33 percent combined, versus 35 percent one week earlier.

Condition categories do not automatically quantify yield loss, production loss, quality, or price direction; the observation must be read with stage, geography and subsequent weather.

Next check: Next USDA NASS Crop Progress release and the next NASS Crop Production release.

cotton_condition_good_excellent_percent: 33.0 percent

The current official condition table has good+excellent at 33%, versus 35% in its previous-week columns. A worse condition reading can increase crop-risk premium.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: The two-point change is small; condition is neither yield nor quality, and October WASDE raised the production forecast.

Crop progress and condition are reported conditions, not final yield, production loss, or price direction.

Next check: Next NASS Crop Progress release; this assessment is already stale.

cotton_harvested_percent: 23.0 percent

Harvested area was 23%, above the 21% five-year average in the same official table; faster harvest can bring marketed supply forward.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: A two-point progress lead is not production, quality, storage, or actual sales availability.

Crop progress and condition are reported conditions, not final yield, production loss, or price direction.

Next check: Next NASS Crop Progress release; this assessment is already stale.

As of October 1, 2026, USDA NASS estimated US upland cotton ginnings at 917,150 running bales, excluding linters.

Ginnings are not final production, inventory, quality, consumption, shipment or available-export-supply; the annual report may revise estimates.

Next check: Next USDA NASS Cotton Ginnings release and the annual revision report.

ginnings: 917150.0 running_bales_as_published

Price impact has not been assessed; retain the source observation as information.

Price confidence: unassessed

Counter-case: Other supply, demand, inventory and weather factors may offset this observation.

Ginnings are cumulative processing estimates, not final production, available export supply, physical inventory, quality-adjusted supply, or price direction.

Next check: Collect a like-for-like next official vintage before assessing price impact.

weekly_exports: 161.6 running_bales_as_published

Net sales rose from 71.2 to 165.1 thousand running bales between retained reports; current weekly exports (161.6) and outstanding sales (3,573.6) are official report facts. The sales increase is a near-term demand-positive observation.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: The comparison skips intervening weeks, sales can be cancelled, and reported exports are not customs shipments or global demand.

Net sales, outstanding sales and reported exports are not inspections, customs shipments, or textile mill consumption.

Next check: Next FAS weekly export-sales report; this assessment is already stale.

outstanding_sales: 3573.6 running_bales_as_published

Net sales rose from 71.2 to 165.1 thousand running bales between retained reports; current weekly exports (161.6) and outstanding sales (3,573.6) are official report facts. The sales increase is a near-term demand-positive observation.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: The comparison skips intervening weeks, sales can be cancelled, and reported exports are not customs shipments or global demand.

Net sales, outstanding sales and reported exports are not inspections, customs shipments, or textile mill consumption.

Next check: Next FAS weekly export-sales report; this assessment is already stale.

net_sales: 165.1 running_bales_as_published

Net sales rose from 71.2 to 165.1 thousand running bales between retained reports; current weekly exports (161.6) and outstanding sales (3,573.6) are official report facts. The sales increase is a near-term demand-positive observation.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: The comparison skips intervening weeks, sales can be cancelled, and reported exports are not customs shipments or global demand.

Net sales, outstanding sales and reported exports are not inspections, customs shipments, or textile mill consumption.

Next check: Next FAS weekly export-sales report; this assessment is already stale.

accumulated_exports: 1528.7 running_bales_as_published

Price impact has not been assessed; retain the source observation as information.

Price confidence: unassessed

Counter-case: Other supply, demand, inventory and weather factors may offset this observation.

Net sales, outstanding sales and reported exports are not inspections, customs shipments, or textile mill consumption.

Next check: Collect a like-for-like next official vintage before assessing price impact.

In its October 2026 WASDE, USDA projected 2026/27 US cotton production at 13.44 million 480-pound bales, up from the September projection of 13.20 million bales.

WASDE estimates are revised and must be read alongside actual crop results, quality, trade, stocks, mill use and other origins.

Next check: Next USDA WASDE and NASS Crop Production releases.

yield_per_harvested_acre: 790.0 Pounds

USDA's same-vintage October forecast raised yield (776→790 lb/acre), production (13.20→13.44m bales), and ending stocks (3.60→3.80m bales) while mill use and exports were unchanged. A larger forecast supply/stock balance is downward pressure on cotton futures, conditional on later confirmation.

Price confidence: medium

Counter-case: Forecasts can be revised; realized quality, abandonment, export demand, non-US supply and mill demand can offset the projected increase.

WASDE values are USDA estimates/projections, not realized crop, mill use, trade, or stocks.

Next check: Next WASDE or a NASS production revision changes any of the three balance components.

world_total_supply: 193.65 Million 480-Pound Bales

Price impact has not been assessed; retain the source observation as information.

Price confidence: unassessed

Counter-case: Other supply, demand, inventory and weather factors may offset this observation.

WASDE values are USDA estimates/projections, not realized crop, mill use, trade, or stocks.

Next check: Collect a like-for-like next official vintage before assessing price impact.

world_production: 117.95 Million 480-Pound Bales

Price impact has not been assessed; retain the source observation as information.

Price confidence: unassessed

Counter-case: Other supply, demand, inventory and weather factors may offset this observation.

WASDE values are USDA estimates/projections, not realized crop, mill use, trade, or stocks.

Next check: Collect a like-for-like next official vintage before assessing price impact.

world_mill_use: 123.08 Million 480-Pound Bales

Price impact has not been assessed; retain the source observation as information.

Price confidence: unassessed

Counter-case: Other supply, demand, inventory and weather factors may offset this observation.

WASDE values are USDA estimates/projections, not realized crop, mill use, trade, or stocks.

Next check: Collect a like-for-like next official vintage before assessing price impact.

world_exports: 44.71 Million 480-Pound Bales

Price impact has not been assessed; retain the source observation as information.

Price confidence: unassessed

Counter-case: Other supply, demand, inventory and weather factors may offset this observation.

WASDE values are USDA estimates/projections, not realized crop, mill use, trade, or stocks.

Next check: Collect a like-for-like next official vintage before assessing price impact.

world_ending_stocks: 70.68 Million 480-Pound Bales

Price impact has not been assessed; retain the source observation as information.

Price confidence: unassessed

Counter-case: Other supply, demand, inventory and weather factors may offset this observation.

WASDE values are USDA estimates/projections, not realized crop, mill use, trade, or stocks.

Next check: Collect a like-for-like next official vintage before assessing price impact.

production: 13.44 Million 480-Pound Bales

USDA's same-vintage October forecast raised yield (776→790 lb/acre), production (13.20→13.44m bales), and ending stocks (3.60→3.80m bales) while mill use and exports were unchanged. A larger forecast supply/stock balance is downward pressure on cotton futures, conditional on later confirmation.

Price confidence: medium

Counter-case: Forecasts can be revised; realized quality, abandonment, export demand, non-US supply and mill demand can offset the projected increase.

WASDE values are USDA estimates/projections, not realized crop, mill use, trade, or stocks.

Next check: Next WASDE or a NASS production revision changes any of the three balance components.

mill_use: 1.5 Million 480-Pound Bales

Price impact has not been assessed; retain the source observation as information.

Price confidence: unassessed

Counter-case: Other supply, demand, inventory and weather factors may offset this observation.

WASDE values are USDA estimates/projections, not realized crop, mill use, trade, or stocks.

Next check: Collect a like-for-like next official vintage before assessing price impact.

exports: 12.3 Million 480-Pound Bales

Price impact has not been assessed; retain the source observation as information.

Price confidence: unassessed

Counter-case: Other supply, demand, inventory and weather factors may offset this observation.

WASDE values are USDA estimates/projections, not realized crop, mill use, trade, or stocks.

Next check: Collect a like-for-like next official vintage before assessing price impact.

ending_stocks: 3.8 Million 480-Pound Bales

USDA's same-vintage October forecast raised yield (776→790 lb/acre), production (13.20→13.44m bales), and ending stocks (3.60→3.80m bales) while mill use and exports were unchanged. A larger forecast supply/stock balance is downward pressure on cotton futures, conditional on later confirmation.

Price confidence: medium

Counter-case: Forecasts can be revised; realized quality, abandonment, export demand, non-US supply and mill demand can offset the projected increase.

WASDE values are USDA estimates/projections, not realized crop, mill use, trade, or stocks.

Next check: Next WASDE or a NASS production revision changes any of the three balance components.

beginning_stocks: 4.15 Million 480-Pound Bales

Price impact has not been assessed; retain the source observation as information.

Price confidence: unassessed

Counter-case: Other supply, demand, inventory and weather factors may offset this observation.

WASDE values are USDA estimates/projections, not realized crop, mill use, trade, or stocks.

Next check: Collect a like-for-like next official vintage before assessing price impact.

area_planted: 10.45 Million Acres

Price impact has not been assessed; retain the source observation as information.

Price confidence: unassessed

Counter-case: Other supply, demand, inventory and weather factors may offset this observation.

WASDE values are USDA estimates/projections, not realized crop, mill use, trade, or stocks.

Next check: Collect a like-for-like next official vintage before assessing price impact.

area_harvested: 8.16 Million Acres

Price impact has not been assessed; retain the source observation as information.

Price confidence: unassessed

Counter-case: Other supply, demand, inventory and weather factors may offset this observation.

WASDE values are USDA estimates/projections, not realized crop, mill use, trade, or stocks.

Next check: Collect a like-for-like next official vintage before assessing price impact.