All published signals

India Ministry of Steel / Press Information Bureau reported 4.04 million metric tonnes of NMDC iron ore production in NMDC India for September 2026, up 8% year on year.

NMDC's 8% y/y increase covers one miner, not India's full supply or benchmark seaborne availability.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Hot metal is an ore-demand proxy, finished steel consumption is downstream, and NMDC output is one producer rather than India's total production. Do not add these measures or infer price direction.

Hot metal is an ore-demand proxy, finished steel consumption is downstream, and NMDC output is one producer rather than India's total production. Do not add these measures or infer price direction.

Next check: Verify the next dated primary release, product scope, imports/stocks and revisions before a new price assessment.

India's Ministry of Steel reported 7.9 million metric tonnes of hot metal production in September 2026, up 0.2% year on year.

India hot metal rose 0.2% y/y, implying slightly more ore-intensive output, while the same official release reports NMDC ore production up 8% y/y, an opposing domestic-supply force.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: NMDC is not all Indian supply; imports, inventories and ore quality could change the balance.

The 0.2% yearly increase is small; the ore charge, pellet/sinter mix, inventories and imported versus domestic ore are not resolved.

Next check: October India steel/ore figures and import balance are verified.

India Ministry of Steel / Press Information Bureau reported 13.5 million metric tonnes of finished steel production in India for September 2026, up 1.9% year on year.

Finished steel production is downstream of ore intake and can include semis and stock movements.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Hot metal is the closest ore-demand proxy here; crude and finished steel are downstream measures. NMDC output is one producer rather than India's total production. Do not add overlapping measures or infer price direction.

Hot metal is the closest ore-demand proxy here; crude and finished steel are downstream measures. NMDC output is one producer rather than India's total production. Do not add overlapping measures or infer price direction.

Next check: Verify the next dated primary release, product scope, imports/stocks and revisions before a new price assessment.

India Ministry of Steel / Press Information Bureau reported 14.4 million metric tonnes of finished steel consumption in India for September 2026, up 8% year on year.

Strong finished-steel consumption may come from inventories or imports; hot metal was nearly flat and domestic ore supply rose.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Hot metal is an ore-demand proxy, finished steel consumption is downstream, and NMDC output is one producer rather than India's total production. Do not add these measures or infer price direction.

Hot metal is an ore-demand proxy, finished steel consumption is downstream, and NMDC output is one producer rather than India's total production. Do not add these measures or infer price direction.

Next check: Verify the next dated primary release, product scope, imports/stocks and revisions before a new price assessment.

India Ministry of Steel / Press Information Bureau reported 14.1 million metric tonnes of crude steel production in India for September 2026, up 3.4% year on year.

Crude steel growth includes non-ore-intensive routes and does not specify ore procurement.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Hot metal is the closest ore-demand proxy here; crude and finished steel are downstream measures. NMDC output is one producer rather than India's total production. Do not add overlapping measures or infer price direction.

Hot metal is the closest ore-demand proxy here; crude and finished steel are downstream measures. NMDC output is one producer rather than India's total production. Do not add overlapping measures or infer price direction.

Next check: Verify the next dated primary release, product scope, imports/stocks and revisions before a new price assessment.

Brazil's MDIC customs CSV records 31.66049 million metric tonnes of net-weight iron ore exports in September 2026 for NCM 26011100 and 26011200 combined.

Brazil September customs exports have no verified comparable period or destination/inventory balance in this card.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: MDIC NCM 26011100+26011200 net-weight exports are customs shipments, not mine output or Chinese arrivals. Portal update date is not necessarily the CSV publication time.

No comparable prior period is established in this item. The portal's 2026-10-06 update is not proven to be this CSV's publication date; destination, grade, inventory and seaborne transit can change the market effect.

Next check: Verify the next dated primary release, product scope, imports/stocks and revisions before a new price assessment.

Australia's ABS reported a 17.2% month-on-month rise in iron ore lump export quantity in August 2026; the same table shows an 11% year-on-year increase.

Australian lump export quantity rose 17.2% m/m and fines quantity rose 6.0% m/m in the same ABS release, provisionally increasing seaborne availability.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: The rise may be demand-pulled, fines/lump prices differ, and absolute tonnes and port inventories are not in this observation.

A percentage change cannot be added to fines or converted to tonnes without a base; revisions and grade mix may change the reading.

Next check: September ABS quantities and Australian port throughput are available.

Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that Australian iron ore fines export quantity rose 6% month on month in August 2026, up 4.5% year on year.

Australian fines export quantity rose 6.0% m/m alongside lump up 17.2% m/m; higher flow can loosen near-term availability.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Shipments may be absorbed by stronger demand; no base tonnes, destination arrivals or inventory draw are established.

ABS reports a revised percentage change in export quantity, not tonnes. Lump and fines must not be added as percentages, and the result is not a price-pressure score.

Next check: September ABS quantities, China arrivals and port stocks are available.

World Steel Association reported 144.2 million metric tonnes of crude steel production across 70 reporting countries in 70 reporting countries for August 2026, down 1.2% year on year.

70-country crude steel includes electric-furnace output and is not an ore-intake series.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Crude steel output is not iron ore consumption; hot-metal and electric-furnace mix require separate checks.

Crude steel output is not iron ore consumption; hot-metal and electric-furnace mix require separate checks.

Next check: Verify the next dated primary release, product scope, imports/stocks and revisions before a new price assessment.

World Steel Association reported 74.6 million metric tonnes of crude steel production in China for August 2026, down 3.7% year on year.

China crude steel corroborates demand context but does not separate blast-furnace from scrap/EAF; avoid a second independent price signal.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Crude steel output is not iron ore consumption; hot-metal and electric-furnace mix require separate checks.

Crude steel output is not iron ore consumption; hot-metal and electric-furnace mix require separate checks.

Next check: Verify the next dated primary release, product scope, imports/stocks and revisions before a new price assessment.

National Bureau of Statistics of China reported 114.75 million metric tonnes of rolled steel production in China for August 2026, down 5.5% year on year.

Rolled steel is downstream and can draw semis/inventory; it cannot quantify current ore charging.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Pig iron is closer to blast-furnace ore demand; rolled steel is downstream and can include scrap/EAF steel. Neither is a direct iron ore import or price measure.

Pig iron is closer to blast-furnace ore demand; rolled steel is downstream and can include scrap/EAF steel. Neither is a direct iron ore import or price measure.

Next check: Verify the next dated primary release, product scope, imports/stocks and revisions before a new price assessment.

China's National Bureau of Statistics reported 67.65 million metric tonnes of pig iron production in August 2026, down 3.5% year on year.

China's pig iron output fell 3.5% y/y; worldsteel separately reports China crude steel down 3.7% y/y for the same month. This suggests weaker blast-furnace ore use, not a measured import decline.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Ore imports may rise for restocking while port inventories fall; grade mix or supply curtailments can dominate the price.

The comparison is year on year, not sequential; ore imports, steel inventory, blast-furnace charge mix and supply changes can counter it. August data may already be priced in.

Next check: September China pig iron, ore imports and port stocks are verified.

Fortescue reported 52.7 million metric tonnes of total iron ore shipments in Fortescue Pilbara operations for Q2 2026.

Q2 shipments lack a same-basis comparison and are stale; they are not current production or China arrivals.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Quarterly shipments are not mine output or China arrivals. Iron Bridge concentrate is a product subset of Fortescue total shipments; do not add it to the total. Confirm wet/dry basis and reporting boundaries before interpreting supply pressure.

Quarterly shipments are not mine output or China arrivals. Iron Bridge concentrate is a product subset of Fortescue total shipments; do not add it to the total. Confirm wet/dry basis and reporting boundaries before interpreting supply pressure.

Next check: Verify the next dated primary release, product scope, imports/stocks and revisions before a new price assessment.

Fortescue reported 2.7 million metric tonnes of Iron Bridge concentrate shipments in Fortescue Pilbara operations for Q2 2026.

Iron Bridge is a subset of Fortescue total and a different grade/product; Q2 value is stale.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Quarterly shipments are not mine output or China arrivals. Iron Bridge concentrate is a product subset of Fortescue total shipments; do not add it to the total. Confirm wet/dry basis and reporting boundaries before interpreting supply pressure.

Quarterly shipments are not mine output or China arrivals. Iron Bridge concentrate is a product subset of Fortescue total shipments; do not add it to the total. Confirm wet/dry basis and reporting boundaries before interpreting supply pressure.

Next check: Verify the next dated primary release, product scope, imports/stocks and revisions before a new price assessment.

Vale reported 7.3 million metric tonnes of pellet production in Vale global iron ore operations for Q2 2026, down 7% year on year.

Vale Q2 pellets fell 7% y/y, a possible pellet-premium tightening, not evidence for today's 62% fines benchmark.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Production, pellet output and iron ore sales are distinct measures; sales may include inventory changes and are not equal to current mine output.

Production, pellet output and iron ore sales are distinct measures; sales may include inventory changes and are not equal to current mine output.

Next check: Verify the next dated primary release, product scope, imports/stocks and revisions before a new price assessment.

Vale reported 79.7 million metric tonnes of iron ore sales in Vale global iron ore operations for Q2 2026, up 3% year on year.

Vale Q2 sales rose 3% y/y but may draw inventory; quarter is stale for current price pressure.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Production, pellet output and iron ore sales are distinct measures; sales may include inventory changes and are not equal to current mine output.

Production, pellet output and iron ore sales are distinct measures; sales may include inventory changes and are not equal to current mine output.

Next check: Verify the next dated primary release, product scope, imports/stocks and revisions before a new price assessment.

Vale reported 84.3 million metric tonnes of iron ore production in the second quarter of 2026, 1% above the year-earlier quarter.

Vale Q2 mine output is old; sales, stock changes and other miners determine seaborne availability.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: Production, pellet output and iron ore sales are distinct measures; sales may include inventory changes and are not equal to current mine output.

Q2 is older than the monthly data above. Output may be stockpiled, sold later or processed into pellets; do not assign the figure to an individual mine or add pellet output to it.

Next check: Verify the next dated primary release, product scope, imports/stocks and revisions before a new price assessment.

Indian Bureau of Mines reported 31.9201 million metric tonnes of iron ore production in India for May 2026.

IBM May output is a provisional/revisable historical fact with no verified issue date or current market balance.

Price confidence: low

Counter-case: IBM monthly production may be provisional or revised in later issues. The PDF does not establish a verified publication date; this observation is not preview-eligible until freshness is verified.

IBM monthly production may be provisional or revised in later issues. The PDF does not establish a verified publication date; this observation is not preview-eligible until freshness is verified.

Next check: Verify the next dated primary release, product scope, imports/stocks and revisions before a new price assessment.